Not ask the Mayor of London if they were right. The 1 tornado was out of the tornado forecast area. Simply ignoring Corbyn because of his radical views on the traditional theory of global warming is wrong. For instance today 5th July here in East Yorkshire we have had torrential rain all day complete with storms. This being such a long thread I haven’t read all comments, but Piers’ forecasts were the subject of analysis in a peer reviewed paper some years ago that concluded his predictions were better than chance. Our forecast users say generally yes and yes again, including for USA now and recently, AND USE THE FORECASTS TO INCREASE THEIR BOTTOM LINE. If you are one of the people who said that, go back and look at his forecast … he NEVER FORECAST FOREST FIRES IN COLORADO. w. @Willis Eschenbach says: I wonder how much the 21st OWS forecasts differ from the Met office. They are only interested in the illusion of the moment, the take at the box office till and the applause of the crowd. Summertime pandemonium will ensue across the land. Correct? http://twitpic.com/a4q45r/full, Trains derailed by landslides in Scotland: USA is getting some heavy weather today too. In forecasting, a “success” is when what you say is going to happen actually happens when and where you forecast it. These aren’t vague typical weather patterns – we are talking about big storms or significant events such as the Russian heat wave or the Pakistan floods. 2. • Frequent low pressure over Great Lakes / N/E You predicted “extreme thunder, giant hail, and tornado swarms” in the period July 1-4 south of the Great Lakes. Stockbrokers, conversely, are ‘prestidigitateurs’ – conjurers on a stage, with silk handkerchiefs, top hats and tinselled, leggy assistants. 2008: 0 If that’s what you call a vague weather prediction then I think you need to get out more into the real world and see just how vague everything and everyone is out there. 6 years I would pay particular attention to the R periods. Subscribe to WeatherAction’s game-changing forecasts So no, that is not “significantly enhanced earthquake activity”, particularly when he says earthquake activity will be “probably exceeding the levels of the most active extended periods in at least the last 100 years”. w. Se astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, as the international guest speaker at – The Greenest Event – South Africa – 5. I present it here from his PDF page. I can’t imagine Ladbroke’s banning every single punter (turning away business). It’s massive missing of the point to examine a precise period for a prediction that was made more than 2 weeks earlier and say there was nothing unusual. We get fantastic support from forecast users. – especially the pdfs which cover our early USA trials. ^ forecast maps in the new format since May, same data off of same tabled raw data, produces the same csv files, just more detailed graphics, now 8 nearest neighbors, with max search radius of 8 degrees, 3 mile grid squares, instead of the original maps with 32 nearest neighbors, a search radius of 70 degrees, on 60 mile grid squares. As he says: 3) For Full forecasts That’s a guaranteed recipe for generating controversy. Duh. From the point of view of long range forecasting, the most useful prediction is severe weather or characteristic weather. The concept of science might be easier for you if you think of it as a bet. At that point when they found I was involved, as I understand, they cut the odds to 1/1. By “heavy rain and floods” I am taking that as “deluge” which is what we got just not exactly when he said it would be and he issued his prediction on the 15th of June NOT the 28th. Latest forecast at 18:00 was for rain to move into England from the West by dawn tomorrow. Corbyn predicted it would be the ‘Coldest May for 100 Years’. Bear in mind that For crying-out-load, he is on our side! On the BBC website they explicitly say “The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster.” Yet Piers – apparently – is able to forecast accurately from longer than that. As examples. That’s not entirely fair I would submit. July 5, 2012 at 2:25 pm. w. Please, everyone… a) compare us with whatever anyone else said that time ahead [and NO the July forecast was made 15th June and any changes very minor on 28th (issue meaning desk top publishing) re interpretation of maps already defined unless we changed SLAT procedure which we did not in this case. But all were warned about the likelihood of such events. So please let’s have a comparison between the performance of WeatherAction and the Met Office, I think it would be somewhat fairer!! A forthcoming ice age does not in fact become an ice age just because it has been cold for 50 or100 or 200 years. This is a good example of my conclusion that Corbyn is good at predicting general pressure and jet stream scenarios but does not always forecast this accurately enough to translate into an accurate weather forecast for regions of the British Isles. In the early part of this winter this mild-mannered and avuncular upstart had already made fools of the Met Office (MO) for their “Beast from the East” scare. Piers forecast 6 typhoons (with perhaps one more) in July 2008. it rained in about 60% per cent of the places we said it would) Even seems to be in line with the way Piers’ judges himself in his headline claims. Don’t be put off by his presentation style, lack of graphical skills, Billingsgate accent or dishevelled, schoolmasterly appearance. As it stands I find what you did with our reportage of the end June forecast misleading whether intentional or not, and indeed Willis E. appears to have been misled and is using it as forecast for July! REPLY: On the contrary. On the question of record heat/cold. A magnitude 9.0 earthquake releases: The theory and supporting evidence are available to all in a free ebook Natural Climate Pulse The heart of… That is meaningless if you don’t know how many days in those statistics are forecast to be ‘R’. Unless the magistrate was awkward of course. That’s a perfect example, if it actually happened like that. But you appear to not want people to tell the truth. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_United_Kingdom, David, UK says: This summer, we’ve predicted that unseasonably hot and dry weather will be on tap for the Rockies and Great Plains, as well as the eastern states, while the Pacific Northwest will see below-normal precipitation. When Piers says “more earthquakes”, you are free to claim he is right because a couple of the ones that did occur were quite powerful … but PIERS DIDN’T PREDICT MORE POWERFUL EARTHQUAKES, HE PREDICTED MORE EARTHQUAKES. 1. Sometimes they predict the weather pattern uncannily. 2005: 1 Martin Gordon says for the UK He does use these occasions as learning moments. Noon to midnight? It’s just very difficult to determine, for reason I explained above. . Just as a comment, I instinctively like the man and find him credibly sincere in his opinions and scientific conclusions. ———- Forwarded message ———- I would love for you take a serious look at as many of his long-range predictions and see whether or not over time he has really gotten it right or right enough to suggest there is something to his technique. In the absence of lists of potential bets looking at random slots of past weather is a fair approach. If it doesn’t come true, it counts against their theory. So I looked there to see about the typhoons. I would still be confident that the big storm would hit but unsure of the precise day. (The less overt marketing, the more the truth, marketing being lies by any other name: hence Gore). That’s a whole three days in advance of the start of the period he is forecasting, which was July first to seventh. Robert, you make my point exactly, there are no fixed boundaries. KM says: I believe Einstein was called eccentric and was an awful cook, plasterer, bus driver and nanny! For me to win the bet, I have to show that your forecast was false. Piers doesn’t have to apologise or hide because he made errors. High pressure over Florida and West Central parts (Rockies). I was afraid March was going to be the high point of the summer. The models work ok for several days or a week, the warm bias does not show up so fast, but the longer term they forecast, the longer the warming bias is evident. Given the apparent discrepancy, is it possible that “Weathernet” is also the name of Piers’ hamster, Both by “scientific” institutes. And of course the sun’s influence needs to be taken into account. We will continue to update throughout the day monitoring these storms! Why should you? This the second time I have quoted what he wrote in comments above, read it again: Noon to midnight? The fact that Piers doesn’t do so is of interest … 6. That’s my only theory for why you avalanche so many words to convey almost nothing. If the tornados didn’t turn up don’t you think its missing the point to say “Ah – well he got that wrong!” I think you are simply asking too much of one individual prediction!