Funny quotes by: Oscar Wilde Writer. However, in this case again, the mechanism of the play is such to ensure the same probability for each of the 26^14 possible combinations of fourteen letters (out of the twenty-six letters of the alphabet). It underpins much of the social sciences — witness the prevalent use of statistical testing, confidence intervals, regression methods, and so on. © 2020 The Thought & Expression Company, LLC. Chief Wiggum: You're all under arrest for the murder of Seymour Skinner. That's a great word. What’s questioned in the example, rather, is whether we should accept such a scenario even on conceptual or theoretical grounds. How come every piss I take is a fuckin' news story?”, “I was proud to be Johnny Soprano's kid. Funny Best Friend. Fat Tony: How about meringue? Fat Tony: And, what if your family don't like bread? Fat Tony: Pick a horse, kid. Fat Tony: Milhouse, may I borrow your three-ring binder? Fat Tony: Bart, is it wrong to steal a loaf of bread to feed your starving family? Discover and share Fat Tony Simpsons Quotes. Expectation, or to avoid that technical term, hope seems to play a critical role here: you won’t get the sequence of flips you hope for. Privacy Statement • You wouldn't happen to know anything about a cigarette truck tha... You're all under arrest for the murder of Seymour Skinner! We’re suppose to say that, after 300 throws, whatever those outcomes, the probability of getting Heads on the 301st throw is one half. And the probability of getting at least one Tails in 100 flips is: 1 – (1/2)^100. The Simpsons: 10 Funniest Fat Tony Quotes That Make Us Laugh. All rights reserved. ), Or, as a decimal: 0.9999999999999999999999999999992111390947789881945882714347172137703267935648909769952297210693359375. Slightly remarkable is the fact that I just now picked up a quarter to see how many Heads I might get. Getting 100 trillion (or some even larger arbitrarily chosen number) in a row seems more than improbable, it seems impossible. My claim about 100 Heads in a row never happening seems, then to commit me to similar claims not just about all Tails, but about the emergence of any reliably predictable pattern. Probability is a model that permeates the broader models we rely on to create our world.10By our world, or just world, I mean the world we construct and inhabit through sensory perception, math, language, embodied cognition, probability models, art, and so on. Were a coin rigged to yield that pattern indefinitely, supposing it starts on Heads after its first, freshly minted flip, it would not at any point be a 50:50 coin, but would have a probability of 1 of landing next on the alternate side. Fat Tony: Call that doctor that owes us a favor. At any rate, something is going to happen when you flip the coin. Or, as a fraction: 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,375/1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376. Same goes for, say, the probability of randomly selecting, on a NYC street, a man who’s precisely 5′ 8″ tall. It seems, then, that it is an oxymoron to invoke together the words “fair coin” and “100 Heads in a row.”. Fat Tony, a word? For an undercooked, but I think adequate, example, the probability is zero for randomly pulling the number 2 from a bag containing the real numbers between 1.5 and 2.5. Explore our collection of motivational and famous quotes by authors you know and love. But in the case of all Heads or any other apparent pattern, hope does not—or need not—precede a run of flips; i.e., we’d be surprised to see such a run regardless of not having hoped for or predicted it, and even if we’d never before imagined such an outcome. About Us | Copyright Inquiry | Privacy Policy | Contact Us, Homer Simpson Accepts Ice Bucket Challenge. The probability of flipping a fair coin and getting 100 Heads in a row is 1 in 2^100. Bart, um, is it wrong to steal a... To heterosexual male friendship. In conclusion, then, I rule in favor of Fat Tony. My genechtagazoink! ), These odds don’t stop many of us from saying, “It could happen.” I don’t believe it could happen, not in any predefined sample space. The way we know that a coin is fair is not just by declaring its possible flip outcomes (of which, frankly, there are more than two) as equiprobable in theory, but by flipping it many times and observing that it lands on each of its two faces roughly half the time.8, (Though, interestingly, not if that result is HTHTHTHTHTHT… or a similarly predictable pattern. We were all havin' fun. Is it wrong to steal a truckload of bread to feed them?Bart: Uh uh.Fat Tony: And, what if your family don't like bread? Steven Wright Comedian. Dismantle the tools, you dismantle the world. I'll go, disguised as you. 'Cause I can't tell if you're old-fashioned, you're paranoid, or just a fucking asshole.”, “Jesus fuckin' Christ. That is, if I say it’s at 35, that would mean that, after 35 Heads, a Tails would be due. Homer: You can't kill me. Put in other terms, there’s no clear line where you can definitely rule the coin unfair. I would say the game is certainly fixed. My punim! Fat Tony: Uh, I prefer the cat. He's everyone's favorite Italian mobster stereotype, and he's had some truly memorable lines over the years. I'm Joe Valachi. The number of those other outcomes is 2^100 – 1. Fat Tony: Now the time has come for you to do us a favor. You May Also Like Quotes On: Sex. And yet, any large sequence, even the “random-appearing” ones, will be extremely rare and indeed, given enough flips, perhaps as few as 100, will be the only time that sequence ever occurs on this or any other planet.). Lady: Some large men to see you, sir.Skinner: Uh, I don't have an appointment with any large men...Fat Tony: Are you Skinner?Skinner: I'm Principal Skinner, yes! When you along a sidewalk, no one could have expected well in advance that you—as that particular arrangement of those particular particles, with your unique history, etc.— would at that time step on that particular arrangement of particles in that particular region of space. However, any particular infinite sequence of heads and tails has probability zero of being the exact outcome of the (infinite) experiment.”4]. What if he wants to hold hands? Fat Tony: Well, suppose you got a large starving family. (Fat Tony drives the school carpool home. For example, it’ll take, on average, (2^(10+1))–2 = 2046 throws to see 10 Heads in a row. Though you can say things like, “there’s a 1-2^(-5), or 97% chance, of getting at least one Heads in five flips of a fair coin.”. Woody Allen Film producer. Funny Friendship. So, while part of what’s at the heart of my exploration here is an attempt to make sense of how to treat highly rare events, I should make clear the importance both of importance and of whether the rare event in question is a token (e.g., a particular step upon the ground, which only happens once) or a type (e.g., generic steps on the ground, which happen often). It would be nice were our probability models to map neatly onto the real world, but perhaps the best we can aim for is to be aware of their limitations (as we are, say, with Euclidean geometry) while taking care not not to confuse them—nor our models more generally—with the unfathomably complex real world. The elements of the collective are in this case all the possible combinations of fourteen letters with the alternative attributes ‘coherent’ or ‘meaningless.’ The second attribute (‘meaningless’) has, in this collective, a very much larger probability than the first one, and that is why we call the appearance of the word ‘Constantinople’—or of any other word—a highly improbable event. And it’s certainly to commit the Gambler’s Fallacy to assume any sort of interdependence between the flip results, or that mysterious forces—natural or otherwise—are influencing flip outcomes (cheaters notwithstanding). We are bleeding red ink, which is the only thing we should not be bleeding. In the strip club of my heart, you held da key to da champagne r... Milhouse, may I borrow your three-ring binder? I loved you, man.". A fantastically remarkable result; and, I seem to claim, a practically impossible one. There can be no number that demarcates possible and impossible: If you make it to one Heads you have a .5 chance of making it to two Heads, and on and on up to 36 and beyond. Marge: We'd love to! They like... cigarettes? It can even take center stage in the philosophy of logic, the philosophy of language, and the philosophy of religion. We might, rather, think of it as meaning there’s no degree of certainty that it will happen. Anthropic Bias (Ch 2, Part 2): Fine-Tuning in Cosmology & 100 Heads in a Row, An Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions, How Many Coin Flips on Average Does It Take To Get. Louie: Actually we owe him a favor. A mini-series that uncovers the story of one of Australia's most notorious criminals, Meta • [Laughs nervously] Oh, fun is so fun. Tony Soprano: Why don't you get the fuck outta here before I shove your quotations book up your fat fuckin' ass?” — Tony Soprano , The Sopranos , Season 2 : Do Not Resuscitate Types of events, however, do repeat. Somewhere, the line from possible to impossible is crossed. How about meringue? : THTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH… . Bart: I'll go, disguised as you.Lisa: What if he wants to hold hands?Bart: I'm prepared to make that sacrifice.Lisa: What if he wants a kiss?Bart: I'm prepared to make that sacrifice.Lisa: What if heBart: You don't want to know how far I'll go. Shape the tools and you shape the world. The interpretation of probability is one of the most important such foundational problems. First try, I got five in a row.